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CONJECTURE

Definition:

[noun] a hypothesis that has been formed by speculating or conjecturing (usually with little hard evidence); "speculations about the outcome of the election"; "he dismissed it as mere conjecture"
Synonyms: speculation
[noun] a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence
Synonyms: guess, supposition, surmise, surmisal, speculation, hypothesis
[noun] reasoning that involves the formation of conclusions from incomplete evidence
[verb] to believe especially on uncertain or tentative grounds; "Scientists supposed that large dinosaurs lived in swamps"
Synonyms: speculate, theorize, theorise, hypothesize, hypothesise, hypothecate, suppose